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Group study shows more employment declines to come

01.15.09

January 2009 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton edition of The Union News

Group study shows more employment declines to come

By PAUL TUCKER
theunionnewsswb@aol.com

REGION, December 15th- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) signals more strong employment declines are in the future.

The ETI declined further in November falling to 102.9, down 1.6 percent from the October figure and down over 13 percent from a year ago.

The Conference Board for more than 90 years, has created and disseminated knowledge about management and marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society. The group operates as a global independent membership organization. It publishes information and analysis, makes economics based forecasts and assesses trends.

“Thus far, the United States economy has lost 1.9 million jobs and the declines in the ETI suggest job losses could very well surpass 3 million by mid 2009. The continued deterioration in the labor market will exert significant downward pressure on wages,” said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at the Conference Board.

The ETI aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area, they include:

• The Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (The United States Department of Labor).
• The Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business).
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary Help Industry (The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics).
• Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics).
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board).
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis).

The 16 month-long decline in the ETI is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary help and part-time workers for economic reasons.

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